The Future of Agriculture and Food: What the OECD-FAO Outlook 2026-2035 Means for Europe's Farmers and Innovators

Every ten years or so, a single report gives the global agrifood sector something rare: a shared, evidence-based picture of where farming and food systems are actually heading. The newly released OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 is that report for this decade. Built on the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model and drawing on input from national governments, commodity bodies and two of the world's leading agricultural institutions, it projects how production, consumption, trade and prices for the world's major food commodities will evolve through 2035.

For farmers, agri-food startups and policymakers across Bulgaria and the wider EU, the Outlook is more than a statistical exercise. It is a signal of where investment, innovation and funding priorities are headed next, and it echoes many of the themes we track closely at AgriVentures, from digital farming and autonomous robotics to the One Health approach shaping the future of agrifood systems. Below, we break down the Outlook's key findings and what they mean in practice.

A Decade of Flat Prices, Rising Productivity Pressure

The Outlook's baseline scenario assumes stable global economic growth, a slowing pace of population growth (with global population reaching around 8.8 billion by 2035) and no major new policy interventions. Against that backdrop, real agricultural commodity prices are expected to remain flat or gradually decline over the coming decade.

That is good news for consumers and food security, but it puts direct pressure on farm incomes. With prices unlikely to rise, the report is clear that future income growth for farmers will have to come from productivity, not price. Around 73% of global crop production growth over the next decade is projected to come from yield improvements, with a further 9% from land use intensification, meaning herd and cropland expansion will play a much smaller role than efficiency gains.

This is precisely where continued investment in biotechnology, precision agriculture and mechanisation becomes critical. Farms that fail to close this productivity gap risk shrinking margins and, ultimately, farm exit. It is also why funding instruments supporting digital agriculture, carbon farming and precision input management, the areas AgriVentures works on daily with its members, will only grow in relevance over the next ten years.

The Productivity Gap Between Regions Is Not Closing on Its Own

One of the more sobering findings in the Outlook is that, despite stronger projected yield growth in low- and middle-income countries (in some cases 1 to 3% annually for cereals, dairy and beef), land and herd productivity in these regions will remain well below their technical potential through 2035. The gap is explained not just by agro-ecological conditions, but by limited access to finance, modern farming technologies, skilled labour and advanced agronomic inputs.

Meanwhile, farmers in high-income countries are already operating close to their technological frontier, with yield growth generally capped below 0.5% a year, meaning further gains there are increasingly costly to achieve. The practical implication is that meeting future food demand without expanding herd sizes or cropland, and without growing agriculture's environmental footprint, depends on narrowing these technology gaps through what the report calls the "sustainable intensification" of existing farmland.

For innovation clusters and rural development organisations, this reframes technology transfer and farmer training not as a nice-to-have, but as a structural requirement for the next decade of food security.

Farm Labour Productivity Becomes a Policy Priority

For the first time, this edition of the Outlook introduces a dedicated indicator for agricultural labour productivity, measuring real agricultural GDP per worker. The findings highlight that agriculture shows the widest cross-country productivity differences of any economic sector, and that low-income countries are projected to see the fastest labour productivity growth over the next decade, close to 30% by 2035, largely by catching up from a very low base.

The report is careful to note that labour productivity gains are not automatically good news for farm households. In highly mechanised systems, productivity growth is often driven by substituting labour with capital, which can raise financial vulnerability when high investment costs coincide with price downturns. Interpreting productivity as a sign of structural transformation, rather than a direct measure of household welfare, is one of the more nuanced messages in the report.

An Aging Farming Population and the Search for New Entrants

The Outlook devotes significant attention to a demographic challenge familiar to anyone working in Bulgarian agriculture: the sector's aging workforce. Drawing on the OECD's 2025 Global Forum on Agriculture, the report notes that new entrants are more likely to adopt modern technologies and bring innovation and entrepreneurial skills into farming, yet they continue to face barriers including limited access to land, finance, advisory services and burdensome administrative processes. Young people, women and other underrepresented groups face even higher hurdles.

The policy recommendations read like a checklist for what organisations such as AgriVentures already prioritise: facilitating access to land, credit and advisory services, promoting agricultural training and mentoring networks, reducing red tape, and replacing outdated stereotypes about farming with a narrative centred on innovation and entrepreneurship. It is a reminder that funding access and mentorship programmes, such as those supporting women-led agrifood ventures and rural youth, are not peripheral activities but central to the sector's long-term viability.

Trade Keeps the World Fed, But Regional Gaps Are Widening

The Outlook's trade projections show a world increasingly split between structural exporters and importers. North America and Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to keep exporting 28% and 44% of domestic production respectively, while the Near East and North Africa region's share of imports in total consumption is expected to climb to 72% by 2035, and Sub-Saharan Africa's net food imports are projected to rise by 55%.

This growing interdependence underscores why a well-functioning, rules-based trading system remains essential for global food security, and why countries and companies with weaker logistics performance and trade infrastructure risk being left behind. For low-income countries in particular, the report highlights that limited access to agri-food markets, not a lack of production potential, is often what prevents farmers from capitalising on global demand growth. Investment in infrastructure, logistics and market connectivity is identified as a priority alongside on-farm productivity gains.

What This Means for Agrifood Innovators in Bulgaria and the EU

Reading the OECD-FAO Outlook alongside recent developments we have covered at AgriVentures, from FAO's new CropSuit platform for smarter cropping decisions to the conclusion of the Circular Voices initiative on circularity across Bulgaria and Spain, a consistent picture emerges. The next decade of agriculture will be shaped less by expanding the amount of land farmed and more by how intelligently that land, labour and capital are used.

A few practical takeaways stand out for our community:

• Productivity investment is not optional. With commodity prices projected to stay flat, digital farming tools, precision agriculture and improved genetics are the main levers left for improving farm incomes.

• Technology gaps between regions are a funding opportunity. EU and international grant programmes increasingly target exactly the kind of technology transfer and farmer training that the Outlook identifies as necessary.

• New entrants need practical support, not just enthusiasm. Access to land, finance, mentoring and simplified administration will determine whether Europe's aging farming population is genuinely replaced by a new generation.

• Trade and market access matter as much as production. For smaller and mid-sized producers, logistics, certification and export readiness increasingly determine who benefits from growing global demand.

These are exactly the challenges AgriVentures works on with its members, from navigating EU funding for digital and carbon farming projects to building the mentoring and knowledge networks that help new entrants and innovative startups succeed. If the Outlook's projections hold, the agrifood businesses that invest now in productivity, sustainability and market readiness will be the ones best positioned for the decade ahead.

Source: OECD/FAO (2026), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, Paris and Rome.

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As the agritech startup ecosystem grows across Europe, initiatives such as Agriventures are helping connect entrepreneurs, researchers, investors, and policymakers working in agriculture and food innovation.

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Through knowledge sharing, events, and ecosystem building, Agriventures helps ensure that promising agritech innovations can scale and reach farmers, food producers, and global markets.